2189405 – Der Betrieb von Kraftwerken unter volatilen und unberechenbaren Marktbedingungen
Holistic approach to power plant management We consider all aspects of managing risk and uncertainty for power plant operation from a practitioner’s perspective. Once a boring business, electricity generation and distribution has become a field of fast change with many unpredictable factors. Therefore, it serves as a good case study to learn how to manage in the face of a difficult to predict future - aka decision making under uncertainty. Current developments regarding international conflicts and climate change underline the importance of prepare for risk, uncertainty and volatility. A holistic approach regarding methods and strategies is considered: modelling scenarios with stochastic differential equations, use of financial and real options, applying methods from game theory and using methods from automatic decision making such as supervised learning. Application of concepts of diversity, redundancy and defense in depth. Role of insights from psychology such as Zeckhauser paradox, the sunk cost fallacy and the priming effect are also reviewed, among others.
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